Indo-Pacific — 2026-07-11

China Expands Gray-Zone Maritime Pressure to Taiwan's Pratas and Taiping Islands

BLUFBeijing's simultaneous coast guard expansion across Pratas, Taiping, and Taiwan's eastern EEZ rehearses the administrative control functions a future quarantine would require, stretching Taipei's patrol capacity across too many fronts to sustain.

A China Coast Guard vessel broadcast to a Taiwan Coast Guard Administration ship near Pratas Island on June 27 that "the Republic of China does not exist," prompting a CGA response asserting Taiwanese sovereignty 1. AMTI data show CCG and Maritime Safety Administration activity days around Pratas rising from 25 in 2024 to 60 in 2025, and in June a Chinese research vessel and CCG ship operated together roughly 33 nautical miles southeast of the island for the first time, per Taiwan's CGA 1. China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said Saturday that CCG vessels patrolling waters 74-124 nautical miles east of Taiwan since June, inside what Taipei calls its exclusive economic zone, have been relieved by a second group continuing the patrols, and CCG ships radioed passing cargo vessels for crew and destination information for the first time during that operation 2. Taiwan's National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Ming-yen said Monday that four Chinese formations including warships are operating in the Western Pacific, and National Security Council chief Joseph Wu reported tracking over 110 PLAN and CCG vessels along the First Island Chain 2.

Analysis
Beijing is institutionalizing coast guard presence across three axes at once, splitting Taiwan's patrol assets between Kinmen, Pratas, Taiping, and waters east of the island rather than concentrating pressure on one flashpoint. The research-vessel and CCG pairing near Pratas and the radio queries to cargo ships east of Taiwan signal rehearsal of administrative control functions a future quarantine would require, not routine patrolling. This converges with National Security Council tracking of over 110 PLA Navy and CCG vessels along the First Island Chain, placing the Pratas and eastern-EEZ activity inside a broader seasonal mobilization rather than an isolated incident. Current indicators do not show whether Beijing will formalize these patterns into a permanent presence or scale back once the Japan-Philippines delimitation talks conclude.

2 sources

Maritime Pressure Expands to Pratas and Taiping - Jamestown Foundation
China signals 'new normal' with coast guard patrols off eastern Taiwan - Hong Kong Free Press