Defense & Geopolitics — 2026-03-25

Ukrainian Strikes Halt 40% of Russia Oil Export Capacity

Ukrainian drone attacks have shut approximately 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil export capacity, representing 40% of total capacity, according to Reuters. Loadings at Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Russia two largest Baltic ports, suspended after a second drone attack this week triggered fires. Novorossiysk on the Black Sea is lagging schedule after earlier strikes. Druzhba pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia have been halted since January. Reuters called it the "most severe oil supply disruption" in modern Russian history, occurring as global markets are already tightened by the Iran war.

Analysis
The 40% disruption figure represents 2M bbl/day offline, occurring simultaneously with the Iran-war Hormuz closure. The combined effect removes approximately 3.5-4M bbl/day from global markets, well beyond the IEA 400M barrel strategic release capacity to absorb. Russia Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia has been halted since January, directly affecting Czech Republic energy security (see Czech economic story in this digest).

1 sources

Ukraine Hits Russia's Ports Again, As Fighting Intensifies Amid Stalled Peace Talks - RFE/RL