Global Economy — 2026-06-02

Russia Ships Most Oil Since 2022 as Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Refineries Fail to Dent Export Volumes

BLUFUkrainian refinery strikes have backfired into a revenue windfall, and absent a tighter EU price cap, Moscow will likely sustain export volumes above pre-war norms through summer.

Russia's year-to-date crude exports average 3.46 million barrels per day, roughly 120,000 barrels per day above 2025 and the highest annual pace since the February 2022 invasion, Bloomberg reported June 2 12. Record Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries in May cut refining capacity by roughly 17 percent and drove processing to a 16-year low, redirecting unprocessed barrels to export terminals; Moscow responded by banning jet fuel exports through November 30 in its first-ever such restriction, compounding an earlier gasoline export halt 1UNITED24 Media" data-url="https://united24media.com/world/russian-crude-exports-hit-post-2022-highs-following-refinery-strikes-19432" data-rt="secondary" data-otype="state_media">3. Indian purchases reached 1.76 million barrels per day in May, 63 percent above February, after Trump administration sanctions waivers and Strait of Hormuz disruptions following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran boosted Asian demand for Russian crude 1. The EU is preparing a 21st sanctions package with a proposal to freeze the Russian oil price cap at $44.10 per barrel, with officials seeking to prevent the cap from rising at the scheduled July review, UNITED24 Media reported 3.

Analysis
The EU will likely freeze the Russian oil price cap at $44.10 before the July review. If adoption slips past that date, the cap drifts toward $65, removing whatever marginal sanctions bite remains. The strikes produced a structural inversion: they redirected unprocessed barrels to terminals rather than cutting revenue, while jet fuel and gasoline export bans signal domestic strain alongside the volume gains. Trump waivers opened Indian demand to 1.76 million bpd in May, though elevated delivered prices may be inflating that figure, leaving Moscow exposed to a sharp reversal if Hormuz restrictions ease or waivers expire. Low confidence reflects the opacity of EU deliberations and the single-source flow data, which draws entirely on Bloomberg tanker tracking without independent corroboration.

3 sources

Russia Ships Most Oil Since 2022 as Drones Strike Refineries - gCaptain
Russia Ships Most Oil Since 2022 as Drones Strike Refineries - Bloomberg
Russian Crude Exports Hit Post-2022 Highs Following Refinery Strikes - UNITED24 Media