Zelensky Says Russia Rejected Proposal to Extend and Expand Oleshky Ceasefire and Responded With Massive Strikes

Analysis
Russia rejected the extension and hit Komyshuvakha and the grid within hours of the Oleshky pause ending, and the Kremlin says no further missions are planned. Moscow did not dispute Kyiv's claim that it fortified positions during the truce, which gives Ukraine's military reason to resist another open-ended pause. A new mutually agreed localized or energy ceasefire taking effect between November 5 and November 19 is very unlikely. The Abu Dhabi talks on November 10 and 11 are the only scheduled venue where a limited truce could be raised, and Moscow may be holding a wider pause in reserve as a bargaining chip there, with the strikes meant to raise its price. Confidence is moderate: Ukrainian reporting is consistent and Peskov's statements are on record, but sourcing is narrow, since Moscow's refusal rests on Kyiv's account and one unnamed official quoted by AFP, and visibility into Russian deliberations is thin. Planners should keep air-defense deliveries and energy hardening on a wartime timeline, easing only if a ceasefire emerges.