Coordinated Armed Attacks Hit Bamako and Military Base Kati in Possible Mali Coup Attempt

Analysis
The coordinated attacks on Bamako and Kati mark the first direct assault on the junta's seat of power since the 2021 coup. The junta will very likely retain control of Bamako within the next 90 days: the forecaster revised upward from likely, weighting the seven-of-eight historical precedent of Sahelian juntas surviving JNIM assaults and the absence of any competing armed faction capable of holding urban terrain. The discrepancy between local media reporting a coup attempt using military equipment and the junta's classification as a terrorist attack is analytically significant: if attackers accessed military vehicles, the threat vector is internal defection rather than external assault, a scenario the reference class does not capture. JNIM's ability to strike the capital and the nearby Kati base simultaneously implies degraded junta perimeter security or intelligence penetration of the security zone.