Middle East — 2026-08-21

FDD Analysis Questions Whether Iran Has Rebuilt Ballistic Missile Production Capacity Underground

BLUFIndependent public confirmation that Iran has rebuilt underground ballistic missile production capacity remains very unlikely by late November, leaving policymakers reliant on unverifiable Israeli and Iranian assertions about reconstitution pace.

The Jerusalem Post reported on August 14 that it independently confirmed statements by senior Iranian officials claiming Tehran is producing new ballistic missiles at a faster pace than expected since the roughly 40-day war ended in April 1. The Post reported that Israeli defense officials, including IDF and Mossad personnel, are surprised by the recovery, with the IDF having previously assessed post-war Iranian missile stocks at 500 to 1,000 long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel 1. The IDF told the Post it will not specify the pace of Iran's rehabilitation efforts, citing risk to sources and methods 1. An FDD analysis published August 18 noted the Post did not publish supporting evidence or disclose its sourcing and methodology for the claim, and assessed that no significant public evidence confirms whether Iran has rebuilt above-ground production sites such as Khojir and Shahroud or replicated that capacity underground 2.

Analysis
Independent evidence for either scenario, above-ground reconstruction at Khojir and Shahroud or duplicated underground capacity, is very unlikely to surface publicly by November 30, since both the Post and FDD trace to a single exclusive built on unspecified official statements, with Israel withholding pace details to protect sources and methods. Iran's repeated pattern of outpacing IDF damage estimates after the 2024 and 2025 strikes argues for genuine reconstitution, though the recovery may instead reflect continued excavation of pre-existing buried stockpiles and launch infrastructure rather than restored or newly duplicated production. This judgment rests on moderate confidence, based on consistent IDF acknowledgment of underestimated recovery pace but offset by the absence of technical verification; confirming underground production would push US and Israeli planners toward penetrating-munitions development and renewed subterranean strike planning, while continued ambiguity keeps resources weighted toward monitoring depot excavation instead.

2 sources

Iran rapidly rebuilding ballistic missile arsenal after war, stunning Israel - The Jerusalem Post
Is Iran Rebuilding Its Ballistic Missile Production Capacity? - FDD