Saudi-Led Coalition Launches Operation Dawn of Yemen Counteroffensive Against Houthis With 100 Fighter Jets

Analysis
Government-aligned forces are very unlikely to take control of Sanaa city by December 31, 2026. Confidence is high because the announced goal outruns observed capability: the Houthis cut the Taiz-Aden supply route and seized Al Turbah while coalition air power struck, so airstrikes have not yet shifted ground control. The coalition's air-effort figures trace to one spokesman, not independent confirmation, and FDD's ground-level reporting contradicts government claims on Mocha. The announcement may instead be mainly political signaling meant to bolster the government and deter Houthi advances toward Aden, with Sanaa as rhetorical framing. Saudi planners must keep defending Aden and the Taiz corridor, and carriers should keep routing around Bab al-Mandab. Watch Taiz, Marib and the Hudaydah coast for any government gain holding more than a week.