Taiwan Builds Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Program Drawing on Ukraine Playbook

Analysis
Formal congressional notification of the stalled $14 billion Taiwan arms package is unlikely by year-end. The decision turns on President Trump's pursuit of deals with Xi Jinping, not on Taiwan's civil defense posture, so Taipei's resilience push gives Washington little new leverage. At home, the military has kept civilian-led groups at arm's length and public engagement has flattened since the November 2025 household guides. Lai's proposed international alliance is a diplomatic gain but cannot substitute for U.S. hardware. Beijing's gray-zone escalation could instead push the administration to notify quickly, since a visible sale signals resolve without a trade concession. Confidence is moderate: the assessment rests on one Associated Press report, republished elsewhere, with no independent signal on White House deliberations. A notification would start delivery scheduling and budget programming. Continued delay leaves Taiwan reliant on domestic resilience and pushes Congress toward legislation or letters.