Nuclear Proliferation & Arms Control — 2026-05-26

Iran Official Threatens NPT Withdrawal If US Attacks Persian Gulf as Review Conference Fails

BLUFRezaei's threat reads as deterrent signaling to deter renewed US strikes, and formal NPT withdrawal by December 31, 2026 remains very unlikely given ongoing talks and Tehran's pattern of rhetorical-only invocations.

Mohsen Rezaei, senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader and former IRGC commander, on May 24 threatened NPT withdrawal and blockade-breaking if the United States enters the Persian Gulf or attacks the Strait of Hormuz PressTV (via GlobalSecurity.org)" data-url="https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/05/iran-260524-presstv05.htm" data-rt="primary" data-mbfc="low" data-otype="state_media">123. PressTV reported Rezaei speaking at a ceremony for casualties of what he called "the recent US-Israeli war of aggression" and warning that any Gulf conflict would spread to the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandab, and Indian Ocean 1. He stated the IRGC Navy currently controls Strait passage and that Iran's "fingers are on the trigger" against any aggression, framing NPT withdrawal explicitly as "one of Iran's strategic alternatives" rather than an immediate decision 1. Tehran has said the existing US naval blockade violates the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire that took effect on April 8 1. The statement came one day after the 2026 NPT Review Conference ended without a final document for the third consecutive time, with the US-Iran rift, centered on disputed treaty language stating Iran can "never" seek nuclear weapons, cited across multiple independent outlets as the primary reason for the collapse.

Analysis
Rezaei's conditional NPT withdrawal threat functions as deterrent signaling, not policy commitment; the explicit conditionality on a US strike or Gulf entry preserves it as a cost-raising instrument rather than a directive. Formal notification to the UN Security Council by December 31, 2026 remains very unlikely. Ongoing US-Iran talks and continued IAEA engagement cut against a near-term exit decision. The rhetoric may more plausibly reflect domestic hardline audience management than Supreme Leader policy intent, given his silence on withdrawal and the negotiating team's concurrent signals of continued engagement. Low confidence applies throughout, as sourcing traces solely to PressTV with state-aligned wire amplification and no independent corroboration. Formal exit would push US negotiators off the diplomatic track and toward an escalation posture. Its continued absence keeps nuclear talks viable.

4 sources

Leader's advisor: Iran will break US naval blockade, exit NPT if attacked again - PressTV (via GlobalSecurity.org)
Iran Could Withdraw From NPT If US Attacks Persian Gulf - Official - Pravda USA
Iran Could Withdraw From NPT If US Attacks Persian Gulf - Official - Sputnik Globe
Leader's advisor: Iran will break US naval blockade, exit NPT if attacked again - PressTV