IEA Reports Global Oil Supply Rebounds 4.1 Million Barrels Per Day After Strait of Hormuz Reopening With Gulf Exports Still Half Pre-War Levels

The IEA's July Oil Market Report found global oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million bpd to 98.8 million bpd in June as tanker traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, though output remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels 1. Gulf oil exports, including volumes bypassing the Strait, surged 6.5 million bpd to 16.1 million bpd, still well under the pre-war average of 24 million bpd, while Gulf production itself rose a more modest 3.5 million bpd and sat 11.4 million bpd below pre-war levels 1. The IEA reported that refined product and LPG exports from the Gulf remained less than half their pre-war levels even as crude flows reached nearly three-quarters of February rates, with key export refineries yet to resume loadings 1. The agency projects 2026 supply will decline 3.7 million bpd to 102.6 million bpd and demand will fall 1 million bpd this year before rebounding 2 million bpd in 2027, contingent on continued Hormuz recovery. North Sea Dated crude plunged $22/bbl to around $68/bbl in June, its lowest since January and $2/bbl below pre-war levels, before climbing back to $77/bbl after the ceasefire agreement was breached on July 7-8 12.