Indo-Pacific — 2026-11-13

ASEAN Leaders Converge on Manila for Summit as Philippines Pushes South China Sea Code of Conduct

BLUFASEAN and China are very unlikely to announce the conclusion of Code of Conduct negotiations or sign a finalized text by November 18, as unresolved disputes over geographic scope and legal bindingness will leave Manila framing the summit as progress, not a finished accord.

DFA ASEAN spokesman Dominic Xavier Imperial stated on Thursday that Code of Conduct negotiations with China are 70 percent complete 12. DFA Undersecretary Leo Herrera-Lim told a University of the Philippines forum he would wager the code is not concluded by November, though one more negotiating meeting could resolve remaining issues 2. The Associated Press, citing three senior Southeast Asian diplomats and relayed by the Daily Tribune, reported that talks remain divided on geographic scope, key definitions and legal bindingness, and that the end-2026 target will be missed 3. Palace Press Officer Claire Castro declined to confirm whether the code would conclude at the summit, held in Manila November 15 to 17, where Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend 34.

Analysis
Confidence is high because a senior Philippine diplomat, the ASEAN spokesman and diplomats briefing the Associated Press all point to a missed deadline, and only one official's optimism points the other way. The AP account reaches the Philippine press through a single outlet's relay, but it matches the primary Philippine reporting. ASEAN and China are very unlikely to announce the conclusion of Code of Conduct negotiations, or sign a finalized text, by November 18. Geographic scope, legal bindingness and third-party rights remain unresolved, and ASEAN must still reconcile its own positions before presenting them to Beijing. Manila will frame the summit as progress and shift the target to a post-summit round, preserving Marcos's aim of finishing under the Philippine chairship before Singapore takes over. The 70 percent figure may instead signal a pre-agreed political announcement timed to Li Qiang's visit, with details deferred. A conclusion would move claimants from negotiation to drafting implementation mechanisms and force Manila and Washington to reassess maritime posture, while a miss leaves coast guard and alliance planning unchanged.

4 sources

Asean-China COC on South China Sea 70% done — DFA - The Manila Times
COC talks unlikely to hit milestone by Asean Summit, but... - BusinessMirror
Palace Silent on South China Sea Code Deal Amid ASEAN Summit Talks - Daily Tribune
ASEAN who’s who: Regional, global leaders converge in Manila for year-end summit - Rappler