Energy & Commodities — 2026-07-24

Brent Crude Breaches 100 Dollars Per Barrel as Houthi Bab al-Mandab Blockade Threat Opens Second Energy Chokepoint

BLUFHouthi enforcement of a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz very likely triggers further attacks on Saudi-linked tankers within two weeks, sustaining crude above $100 and compressing already thin supply buffers.

Brent crude rose to $100.65-101.10 a barrel on Thursday, up 6.45-7 percent on the day and its first close above $100 since May, after Yemen's Houthi forces struck two Saudi-flagged oil tankers, the Encelia and Layla, with missiles and drones in the Red Sea 123. Saudi state media confirmed the Encelia caught fire near its bow with all crew reported safe, while it remained unconfirmed whether the Layla was also hit 2. The strikes followed a Houthi-declared "maritime embargo" on Saudi shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait announced earlier in the week, after which five Saudi-loaded tankers reversed course toward the Suez Canal on Tuesday 2. Maritime intelligence firm Windward told Al Jazeera that Chinese-crewed, Chinese-bound cargo continued transiting the strait unimpeded even as Western- and Saudi-linked vessels were warned off the same route 1. Brent has gained roughly 30 percent this month and about $28 a barrel over three weeks; analysts tied the rise to the Bab al-Mandab threat compounding the earlier closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict 23.

Analysis
The Bab al-Mandab strikes open a second energy chokepoint alongside Hormuz, and Houthi enforcement against Saudi- and Western-linked tankers while Chinese-crewed cargo transits unimpeded very likely produces at least one further attack on a Saudi-flagged or Saudi-linked vessel in the corridor within the next two weeks. Continued rerouting toward the Suez Canal and thinning crude buffers left unreplenished since the Hormuz crisis will sustain upward price pressure regardless of whether physical volumes actually fall. High confidence follows from the Houthis' public commitment to "continue naval operations" and the precedent of their 2023-2025 Red Sea campaign against similarly flagged shipping.
7 sources
  1. As oil soars, experts watch Red Sea tankers for clarity on Houthi blockade - Al Jazeera
  2. Oil hits $100 for the first time since May after Houthi attacks on Saudi ships in Red Sea - The National
  3. Oil Prices Top $100 On Cargo Squeeze From The Middle East - Forbes
  4. How the Bab al-Mandab blockade threat helped push oil back above 100 - The Guardian
  5. Oil prices leap to $100 a barrel after attacks in Red Sea - The Washington Post
  6. Oil prices surge to $100 per barrel after Red Sea attacks - NBC News
  7. Oil settles over $100 as Houthi attacks intensify Middle East supply risks - Reuters (Siddharth Cavale)

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