Nuclear Proliferation — 2026-05-16

NPT Review Conference Opens Amid Iran Withdrawal Threats and Collapse of Last US-Russia Arms Control Treaty

BLUFTehran is unlikely to file an Article X withdrawal notice before the end of December 2026, but its parallel working-paper diplomacy confirms the NPT is now leverage, not a constraint Iran feels bound to honor.

Iranian MP Malek Shariati introduced legislation on March 28 to withdraw Iran from the NPT, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes that began February 28, according to the Arms Control Association. The bill was designated for fast-track consideration but has not advanced because Iran's parliament has not convened since the strikes began; Iran nonetheless submitted five working papers for the conference. At Main Committee 1 on May 6, U.S. Deputy Permanent Representative Alison Storsve said Washington seeks a "better agreement" to replace the expired New START. Storsve also proposed P5 ballistic missile launch notifications and a secure communications network, noting neither Russia nor China has accepted either measure.

Analysis
Iran is unlikely to formally notify the UN of NPT withdrawal before end of December 2026: parliament has not convened since strikes began February 28 with no confirmed return date, and resumed legislation would still require Guardian Council review before any Article X notification could issue. Tehran's five working papers signal NPT membership is being wielded as leverage, not surrendered, though wartime opacity around parliament's resumption constrains confidence to moderate, and the parliamentary procedural claims lack primary verification per a single Chatham House synthesis. That participation may instead be a deliberate strategy to frame any eventual exit as a collective NPT failure rather than a bilateral grievance. Absent a formal notification, allied export-control and IAEA emergency-access tracks require no revision.

2 sources

Chatham House - Chatham House
Iran Threatens to Withdraw from the NPT - Arms Control Association