Middle East — 2026-06-27

US Strikes Iranian Military Targets After Trump Accuses Tehran of Ceasefire Violation in Strait of Hormuz

BLUFUnresolved disagreement over MOU clause 5 likely drives further Iranian kinetic attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz before July 11, with roughly 500 vessels still exposed.

On Thursday, Iran launched four attack drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. forces shot down three, and one struck the upper deck of the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely, which continued on after sustaining damage 123. Six U.S. aircraft struck four Iranian targets on Friday, hitting missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar sites along the strait and on Qeshm Island, according to U.S. Central Command 234. Iran's IRGC rejected the ceasefire-violation framing, citing MOU clause 5 as granting Tehran authority over Hormuz passage, and said it struck U.S. military positions in retaliation 3. The International Maritime Organization halted vessel evacuations after clearing 115 ships from the strait since Tuesday, with roughly 500 still in the area, pending guarantees against further attacks 24.

Analysis
Clause 5 of the Islamabad MOU, which Tehran reads as sovereign authority over Hormuz passage, directly contradicts CENTCOM's freedom-of-navigation posture. That gap cannot close through proportionate strikes or diplomacy; renegotiating explicit MOU language is the only path. Iran likely conducts additional kinetic attacks against commercial shipping before July 11, driven by active IRGC enforcement, the Omani corridor dispute, and roughly 500 vessels still stranded. Moderate confidence: visible IRGC enforcement behavior this week supports the call, though command-level standing orders remain opaque. The drone attacks may instead reflect factional enforcement exploiting clause 5's ambiguity, with hardliners setting facts on the ground that constrain Tehran's diplomatic flexibility. Additional attacks before July 11 would prevent IMO from resuming evacuations, forcing the US and GCC to choose between escorted convoys, military interdiction of IRGC patrols, or de facto acceptance of Iranian passage control.

5 sources