Armed Conflict — 2026-09-25

Ukrainian Black Sea Strikes Disrupt Russian Grain Exports as Shipments Plunge in Q1 of Agricultural Year

BLUFSustained loss of Novorossiysk throughput is converting Russia's grain surplus from a geopolitical lever into a domestic economic liability, eroding both export revenue and producer viability.

Russia's grain exports for July-September, the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural year, are forecast at 8.5 million metric tons, down from 14 million metric tons a year earlier, according to Interfax citing ProZerno CEO Vladimir Petrichenko, who attributed the decline to the shutdown of major transshipment facilities, primarily at Novorossiysk 1. Wheat exports for the quarter are projected at 4.8 million metric tons versus 10.6 million a year earlier, and Turkey's share of Russia's grain exports has fallen to 2%, from its traditional first- or second-place ranking, with Iran now the top buyer 1. Separately, the Russian Grain Union reported that wheat exports in the second ten-day period of September fell to 347,000 tonnes from 1.3 million tonnes a year earlier, with Novorossiysk shipments down 9.6-fold and the number of buying countries dropping from 29 to 8 2. The Grain Union's Olena Tyurina forecast total September wheat exports at no more than 1 million tonnes, against 5.7 million tonnes last September, and cited a fall in producer wheat prices to $105.70 per tonne, the lowest September level in eight years 2.

Analysis
The collapse in Novorossiysk throughput has forced Russia's grain trade into a structurally smaller, less diversified buyer pool, with Iran and Egypt absorbing volume that Turkey and two dozen former customers no longer take. Wheat is bearing the brunt because Iran's Caspian-route purchases skew toward corn and barley, leaving Russia's largest export commodity without a substitute outlet. Producer prices falling to an eight-year September low signals oversupply building domestically as exporters lose access to Black Sea terminals. If transshipment capacity stays offline into the winter shipping season, the buyer contraction and price pressure will compound rather than stabilize.

3 sources