Nuclear Proliferation — 2026-09-10

Satellite Imagery Reveals Surge in Construction at Iran Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site as US Weighs Underground Strike Options

BLUFWashington is unlikely to strike Pickaxe Mountain within 60 days, but accelerating construction narrows the window before the facility becomes operationally relevant and far harder to neutralize.

A CSIS satellite imagery analysis, shared exclusively with CNN, found "a clear surge in construction activity" at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site in 2026, including hardened tunnel portals, a paved internal road network, and removal of excavation spoil 12. The analysis, drawing on six years of radar and optical imagery plus July 9 and August 9 Airbus and Satellogic imagery, assessed the underground facility is "likely" a safe haven for Iran's nuclear program but said continuous construction suggests it is "not yet capable of enrichment work" 1. CNN reported that four days before Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) signed a $1.2 million emergency contract with Pate Construction to repair a subterranean test facility at White Sands Missile Range, also carved into granite, like Pickaxe Mountain, for a "live-fire test" to validate classified capabilities, with work required within two-to-three weeks. Three sources familiar with the matter said the contract was tied to developing strike capabilities against Iran's deep underground facilities, though CNN could not independently verify whether the test occurred or its purpose 2. President Trump has said "we may hit Pickaxe very soon" and that "we know everybody that's moving" at the site 23.

Analysis
Construction data shifts the debate from whether Pickaxe Mountain is operational to whether it must be neutralized before it becomes so, and the White Sands contract shows Washington was already building strike capability against it before Operation Epic Fury began. A US strike on the site within 60 days is unlikely: current bunker-buster inventory cannot confirm penetration to depth, and CSIS's own finding that the facility is "not yet capable of enrichment work" removes the urgency that would force premature action. This judgment is held with moderate confidence, resting on convergent imagery indicators but no direct evidence of internal facility status or a finalized targeting decision.

4 sources

New Satellite Imagery Analysis Reveals an Uptick in 2026 Construction Activity at Pickaxe Mountain - CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
'Surge in construction' at suspected Iranian nuclear site, analysts say, as US considers ways to strike deep underground - CNN
Satellite data reveals heavy construction at Iranian nuclear site - Israel Hayom
Report: Iran accelerates construction at deeply buried nuclear site - Ynet News