Sanctions — 2026-10-20

EU Expands Russia Sanctions While Trump Waives Graham Act Penalties Creating Transatlantic Rift

BLUFTrump's Graham Act waiver strips the primary U.S. secondary-sanctions lever against Russian energy buyers, leaving the EU to enforce alone and widening a transatlantic gap that Moscow will exploit.

President Trump signed an executive order late Friday waiving the Graham Act's tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and 100% on top buyers of Russian oil and gas, citing a congressional certification of "national interests" 12. The order preserves existing US sanctions on Russia 2. The White House said enforcement would impede peace negotiations 1, and Zelenskyy called the decision "wrong" in a Saturday post on X 2. Senators Tillis and Cornyn, both Republicans, joined Democrats in criticizing the waiver 1, while Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev called it a "historic moment" 2. On October 15, the EU Council listed three individuals and nine entities for circumventing Russian oil and other sanctions, including shadow-fleet firms in the UAE, India and the Seychelles 34.

Analysis
Confidence is high because the order is signed with no expiry date, Republicans hold a narrow majority, and bipartisan criticism has not produced veto-proof margins. Congress is very unlikely to pass a joint resolution or legislation overriding or terminating Trump's Graham Act waiver by December 31, 2026. The waiver leaves the 500% and 100% duties on the books, so the White House can reimpose them without new legislation, while sparing China and India fresh secondary pressure. The EU now enforces alone against shadow-fleet firms in the UAE, India and the Seychelles, widening the gap between the two jurisdictions. Zelenskyy expects relief to extend to banking and chemicals after diesel and gas. Axios and CNBC draw on the same White House text, so corroboration is thinner than the outlet count suggests. The waiver may instead be a bargaining tool tied to peace talks and the November 3 midterms, which Trump could reverse quickly if negotiations stall. If Congress does not override, EU enforcement officials and shipping insurers should treat the EU as sole enforcer and plan for continued Russian oil trade.

4 sources

Trump waives new Russia sanctions in the "national interests" - Axios
Trump waives broad new Russia sanctions, Zelenskyy condemns it as 'wrong' - CNBC
Closing loopholes: Council lists individuals and entities for circumventing EU sanctions - Council of the EU
EU and US diverge on Russian oil sanctions as Trump waives latest penalties - IEU Monitoring