Armed Conflict — 2026-07-04

ISW Assesses Russia Spring Offensive 16 Times Slower Than 2025, Casualties Per Kilometer Up 19-Fold

BLUFRussia's nineteenfold increase in casualties per kilometer seized signals a force-generation crisis that makes control of more than half of Kostiantynivka unlikely by August 1.

The Institute for the Study of War reported on July 1 that Russian forces seized or infiltrated 30.42 square kilometers in June, down from 481.25 square kilometers in June 2025, a rate of advance of 1.01 square kilometers per day versus 16.04 a year earlier 1. Ukrainian General Staff reporting cited by ISW put Russian casualties at 39,490 for June, translating to roughly 1,298 casualties per square kilometer seized against 68 per kilometer in June 2025 1. Russian forces made 76.73 percent of June's gains in Kostyantynivka, where they hold or have infiltrated 36.98 percent of the city, backed by at least one combined arms army, one army corps, and elements of four additional armies and naval infantry formations. Russian forces first infiltrated the city in October 2025 but only began consolidating tactical gains there in June 2026 after months of intensified infiltration missions and a tactical battlefield air interdiction campaign 1. Ukrainian forces conducted at least 303 intermediate-range strikes in occupied Ukraine in June, up from 210 in May, and struck oil infrastructure and military assets across 41 Russian federal subjects, while Russian equipment losses for the month included 12,867 fuel vehicles and tanks, 60,849 drones, and 2,053 artillery systems 12.

Analysis
Russia's spring offensive has collapsed to one-sixteenth its 2025 pace within three months, and the nineteenfold rise in casualties per kilometer seized points to a force-generation problem constraining any acceleration this month. Kostiantynivka, absorbing over three-quarters of June's gains yet yielding control of barely a third of the city against four-plus defending formations, is unlikely to fall past the halfway mark by August 1; continued grinding rather than breakthrough is the more probable trajectory as Ukrainian intermediate-range strikes erode the logistics sustaining the assault. The slowdown could instead reflect deliberate Russian husbanding of infantry for a later push once Kyiv's strike tempo forces a shift toward air defense. Moderate confidence reflects consistent primary reporting on territory and losses despite inherent uncertainty in city-level control estimates; if the city holds below that threshold, current Ukrainian force allocations and strike investment need no emergency reallocation, while a fall above it would press Western partners to expedite air defense and strike-capable systems.

3 sources

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War (Critical Threats)
Russian 'Spring-Summer offensive' at snail's pace as Ukraine attacks strike home - The Week
ISW: Russia spring offensive is 16 times slower than last year — and costs 19 times more blood per kilometer - Euromaidan Press