Energy — 2026-10-07

OPEC Plus Keeps Oil Output Targets Unchanged for November Extending Pause as Hormuz Closure Limits Production

BLUFCore OPEC+ members are likely to hold December targets unchanged at the November 1 meeting because Hormuz disruptions already cap output well below quotas, removing any incentive to adjust ceilings before 2027.

Seven core OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) agreed in an online meeting on Sunday to hold November production unchanged at September 2026 levels, extending the pause begun in October after six months of increases 12. UPI put the joint target at 31.1 million barrels per day 3, and TASS listed unchanged national quotas, including 10.478 million for Saudi Arabia and 9.949 million for Russia 4. CNBC reported the group's August output at 25 million bpd, about 5 million below prewar levels, citing OPEC data, while Gulf exports ran at 60% to 80% of normal amid the Hormuz disruption 2. The war has delayed the group's capacity review for 2027 quotas, CNBC cited industry sources as telling Reuters, and the next meeting is set for November 1 12. Brent settled Friday at $102.25 12.

Analysis
The core OPEC+ members will likely hold December targets unchanged from November at their November 1 meeting. We have high confidence, because the group's own statement and three secondary outlets agree that no policy adjustment is expected before 2027. The pause costs little: Gulf producers are pumping about 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels, so quotas do not bind. The war has also delayed the capacity review, which blocks any reallocation of 2027 quotas until production potential becomes measurable. Riyadh and Moscow could still resume modest paper increases, since a hike would signal market support without adding barrels. If the hold stands, refiners and traders can treat OPEC+ policy as inert through year-end and focus on Hormuz flows and G7 stock releases. A hike or cut would force a reassessment of 2027 supply and hedging.

5 sources