Iran Conflict — 2026-03-24

Brent Crude Swings 11% in Single Session on Trump Diplomacy Pivot; Settles Near $103

Brent crude experienced its largest single-day decline since the war began, plunging approximately 11% to ~$99/bbl Monday after Trump announced the energy strike pause, before recovering to $102.96 in Tuesday Asian trading. WTI followed a similar trajectory. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles 20% of global seaborne oil, remains effectively closed. Middle East Eye reported traders had placed 'huge oil bets' before Trump's Iran announcement, a possible indicator of information leakage.

Analysis
Price trajectory: Brent has oscillated between $99-$112 over the past 72h. The 11% single-day drop was the largest since the war began, but quick recovery to $103 suggests markets are pricing in continued supply disruption with low probability of full Hormuz reopening.
2 sources
  1. Oil rises with Brent crossing $100 a barrel again as Middle East tensions keep traders on edge - CNBC
  2. Report: Traders placed huge oil bets before Trump Iran announcement - Middle East Eye

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