European Security — 2026-06-06

Macron Starmer and Merz Meet Zelenskyy in London to Coordinate European Support for Ukraine

BLUFEuropean coordination at London and the upcoming Paris session remain performative absent Moscow's engagement, making direct Kyiv-Russia negotiations before September very unlikely.

Macron, Starmer, and Merz met Zelenskyy at Downing Street on June 7, with the Élysée framing the session as aimed at structuring Coalition of the Willing support and intensifying pressure on Russia, which Paris described as in "military, economic and strategic failure" 123. Merz stated "what is missing is Putin's willingness" and Macron said European nations favor direct Kyiv-Moscow negotiations with Europeans helping from the sidelines 1. Macron also announced, at a separate EU-Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, that the next Coalition of the Willing session will convene in Paris on July 13-14 3. Zelenskyy published an open letter to Putin on Thursday calling for a face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire; the Kremlin said Putin had been briefed on the letter, according to Prism 13.

Analysis
Russia agreeing to direct bilateral talks without territorial preconditions before September 1 is very unlikely. The Kremlin's non-substantive acknowledgment of Zelenskyy's open letter extends a pattern consistent across every diplomatic overture since February 2022. Moderate confidence rests on behavioral consistency, the absence of any concession signal despite sustained multilateral pressure, and sourcing corroborated across independent filings though anchored to official readouts. The London summit may have functioned primarily as signaling to Washington rather than Moscow, driven by European anxiety over U.S. distraction rather than any genuine assessment that Russian behavior is about to shift. Absent a Russian reversal before September 1, the Coalition of the Willing's Paris session on July 13-14 is the decision point on whether European governments expand materiel commitments or accept a prolonged stalemate posture.

4 sources