Middle East — 2026-08-10

Trump Willing to End Iran War Without Nuclear Deal If Hormuz Reopens According to WSJ

BLUFIran's shift to maximalist political demands makes full Hormuz reopening very unlikely within the next 30 days, blocking the off-ramp Trump privately signaled he would accept.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing unnamed US officials, that Trump privately told senior aides he is willing to end the Iran war without a nuclear deal if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, telling advisers he believes Iran's nuclear program would struggle to rebound after the destruction of its three main sites in June 1234. Those officials also told the WSJ Trump would likely extend the ceasefire indefinitely if Iran's nuclear program remains checked and shipping resumes, and expects to lift the naval blockade once the strait reopens 34. That path grew harder Saturday when Iran demanded billions in US payments, a troop withdrawal and an end to the naval blockade 1. Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the strait will stay closed until Washington "corrects its behavior," laying out six conditions that include ending US attacks on Iran's regional allies, lifting sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets and compensating for damage from what he called two "imposed wars" 13.

Analysis
Trump's exit strategy hinges on a full reopening of the strait, very unlikely within 30 days. Iran's Supreme National Security Council has pivoted from technical shipping talks to maximalist demands for compensation, a troop withdrawal and an end to the naval blockade. The Kharg Island halt gives the blockade coercive weight, but Rezaei's SNSC appointment narrows the institutional path to reopening. Moderate confidence reflects consistent characterization of Trump's private position across multiple officials, absent independent confirmation of whether Iran's demands are an opening bid or fixed. Sourcing rests on a single Wall Street Journal account citing unnamed officials, reversing Trump's April rejection of a conditional Hormuz-for-nuclear-talks trade. Iran's hardened rhetoric may instead be a bargaining opener, consistent with Araghchi's more conciliatory Oman track. A full reopening would trigger blockade termination, while continued closure keeps US forces committed to sanctions enforcement.
5 sources
  1. Trump willing to end Iran war without nuclear deal - WSJ - Iran International
  2. Trump Reportedly Prepared to Declare Victory on Iran if Hormuz Reopened - Haaretz
  3. Trump willing to end war, declare victory on Iran with no nuclear deal, officials say - report - The Jerusalem Post
  4. Seeking to declare war over, Trump may drop nuclear issue if Iran opens Hormuz -- report - The Times of Israel
  5. Trump Weighs Declaring Victory on Iran Without a Nuclear Deal if Strait of Hormuz Reopens - The Wall Street Journal

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