Middle East — 2026-07-18

Soufan Center Assesses US and Iran Hardline Leadership on Collision Course as 60-Day Deal Window Narrows

BLUFWhether CENTCOM strikes Pickaxe Mountain within 30 days remains genuinely uncertain, but hardliner pressure in Tehran is closing the negotiating space that could prevent escalation.

Friday marked the halfway point of the 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding, with the ceasefire deteriorating amid six consecutive nights of US strikes and Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping 1Soufan Center" data-url="https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-july-17/" data-otype="think_tank">2. CENTCOM reported over 300 strikes on Iranian military targets, and the US reimposed a naval blockade and revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver after Iran struck three commercial vessels 1. Trump said Iran had requested renewed contact and expressed interest in a settlement, while also threatening to "finish it off" and reportedly considering an expanded strike campaign, including on the Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex, according to the Wall Street Journal as cited by the Soufan Center 2. CNN reported that Iranian hardliners, including lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian, have accused chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of staging a "coup" against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei by signing the truce, with Araghchi pelted with rocks at Ali Khamenei's funeral and Nabavian subsequently removed from his parliamentary security-committee post 3.

Analysis
Whether CENTCOM strikes the Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex within 30 days is genuinely uncertain, turning on whether Tehran's fresh outreach yields substantive talks before Trump's threatened escalation preempts them. Hardliners' coup accusations against Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, and Araghchi narrow Tehran's room to negotiate without appearing to capitulate, raising the odds continued Hormuz attacks trigger the wider campaign Trump is weighing; the same rhetoric may instead reflect factional jockeying for post-war power rather than genuine capacity to override Tehran's negotiators, just as Trump's threats could function as leverage rather than settled intent. Moderate confidence rests on corroborated reporting on the strike option and domestic pressure campaign from independent analytic, secondary battlefield, and primary Tehran sourcing, though no indicator yet shows Trump has ordered execution and the coup narrative rests on a single source. A confirmed strike would force Gulf allies to harden defenses and insurers to reprice Hormuz transits, while restraint keeps sanctions relief and the oil waiver as Washington's primary levers.
3 sources
  1. Trump's 60-day Iran deal reaches halfway mark as ceasefire collapses into escalating war - Fox News
  2. A Return to All-Out War in Iran? - The Soufan Center
  3. Iran's hardliners warn of a 'coup' as US truce comes under pressure - CNN

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