Energy & Commodities — 2026-04-30

Brent Crude Surges Past $118 as Trump Pledges to Maintain Iran Naval Blockade

International benchmark Brent crude futures rose approximately 6 percent on April 29 to close at $118.03 per barrel while US West Texas Intermediate futures advanced nearly 7 percent to settle at $106.88 per barrel, reaching the highest levels since June 2022. The spike followed President Trump announcing he would maintain the US naval blockade against Iran until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 35 percent of global seaborne crude oil trade, and the ongoing disruption has reduced global oil supply by approximately 10 million barrels per day according to the IEA.

Analysis
Trump's rejection of Iran's reported Hormuz offer, sourced to Bloomberg without named primary attribution, signals a deliberate US decision to hold the 10-million-barrel-per-day supply gap as negotiating leverage rather than accept partial concessions. No routing alternative closes a disruption at that scale quickly. Brent is very likely to remain above $100 per barrel through May 2026 as long as the blockade holds, and Tehran's vague "practical action" threat raises the tail risk of further supply tightening rather than relief. That Iran put a Hormuz offer on the table at all may reflect internal economic pressure sufficient to accelerate a negotiated off-ramp before both sides sustain deeper damage.

3 sources