Operations & Intelligence Failures — 2026-03-23
CIA and Mossad Unable to Confirm Mojtaba Khamenei Exercising Command Authority; IRGC Assessed as Running Iran
US and Israeli intelligence agencies are unable to confirm whether Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is actually exercising command authority, with assessments indicating the IRGC has assumed de facto control of the Iranian state. The Jerusalem Post reported sources saying Khamenei is 'wounded but alive' with 'no evidence that he is actively leading the country.' CIA and Mossad have been hunting for signs of Khamenei since he failed to appear for Nowruz, issuing only a written statement. IranWire reported that IRGC intelligence threatened Assembly of Experts members and their families to secure Mojtaba's appointment on March 9. The intelligence gap regarding who actually controls Iran's nuclear and military decision-making has significant implications for targeting and escalation assessments.
Analysis
The 0407 brief covered the ATA critique and the March 9 leaked NIC assessment predicting the regime would maintain 'continuity of power.' The IRGC assuming de facto control while Khamenei remains unseen is technically consistent with that prediction but represents a qualitative shift — military rather than clerical hands now control Iran's nuclear and military decisions, with unknown implications for escalation thresholds.
2 sources
- Is IRGC In Charge Of Iran Now? Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Remains Out Of Public Sight As CIA And Mossad Continue Their Search - NewsX
- Mojtaba Khamenei alive, but IRGC currently running Iran, sources tell 'Post' - Jerusalem Post
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