Iran refuses second round of Islamabad talks as Trump threatens to destroy power plants; Hormuz closed again

Analysis
Monday's session is very likely to open without a real negotiating mandate on either side. Converging reporting confirms the shift from Bloomberg's four-day-old framing of mutual diplomatic search to hardened mutual ultimatum, with a roughly even chance it adjourns within 48 hours producing only a communique. Tehran's linkage of attendance to blockade relief signals the IRGC Navy holds effective escalation control; Washington's refusal to lift inspections while the strait stays closed locks both sides into the mutual-hostage posture the ceasefire was meant to unwind, making the April 7 truce very unlikely to renew in its current form within 72 hours of Wednesday's expiration. The refusal may instead be leverage designed to extract a face-saving blockade-easing gesture before the session convenes; a delegation could still arrive Monday if Washington signals flexibility. Absent that signal, the track is on course to collapse rather than pause.