Taiwan Defense Budget Deadlock Continues as Parties Clash Over NT$1.25 Trillion Plan

Analysis
The budget passing at full value within 60 days is genuinely uncertain, revised upward from unlikely given available paths through partial release or a reduced ceiling, but the KMT-TPP majority retains procedural control and no named concession or scheduled floor vote has materialized. The Pentagon's explicit conditionality, an unnamed official stating assistance requires the budget's passage, converts prior congressional lobbying into executive-level stakes that raise the political cost of sustained KMT obstruction. The preliminary consensus on administrative review provisions is procedural scaffolding, not movement on the procurement ceiling; the anticipated drawdown toward NT$600-800 billion has not materialized. That same conditionality may harden opposition rather than soften it, giving KMT leaders a domestic frame to cast the budget as American-imposed rather than Taiwan-driven.