Estonian Foreign Intelligence Chief Assesses Russian Mobilization at 50-50 Odds, Says CIA Ratcliffe Moscow Visit Did Not Weaken Deterrence

Kaupo Rosin, director general of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service, put the odds of a new Russian mobilization at 50-50 in remarks to the Telegraph and in a Baltic Sentinel interview, saying "everybody thinks it's coming" though no formal order has been given 12. In the Baltic Sentinel interview, he said the September 2022 mobilization decree remains formally in force, that Russia's military has since streamlined call-up logistics, and that any new mobilization would likely involve 300,000 to 500,000 men 2. He told the Telegraph he does not expect street unrest but is watching Russia's economic and security elite, where talk has shifted from "total victory" toward how to end the war 1. Rosin also said he was briefed on CIA Director John Ratcliffe's Moscow visit and that it did no harm to NATO deterrence 2. He told the Telegraph he sees no near-term conventional military threat to NATO for at least a year and that Article V's credibility remains intact despite skepticism voiced by President Trump 1.