Middle East — 2026-06-25

Plan Coalesces to Evacuate Hundreds of Ships Still Stranded From Strait of Hormuz Closure

BLUFFull reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial traffic within 30 days is unlikely, as mine contamination and carrier operational holds constrain throughput to a fraction of pre-conflict volume.

The IMO announced June 23 an evacuation of over 11,000 seafarers on 500 to 600 stranded Gulf vessels, conducted in cooperation with Iran, Oman, and the United States 12. Two temporary corridors are in use: a northern lane through Iranian waters and a southern Oman-U.S. lane confirmed mine-clear by the Joint Maritime Information Center; vessels must hold and await sequenced departure orders from IMO, UKMTO, and MICA Center 3. LSEG tracking data showed at least three commercial ships had crossed under the scheme within 12 hours of its launch, with three crude tankers carrying five million barrels also exiting separately 2. Confirmed crossings had already climbed from 32 to 93 across consecutive weekends per Kpler and MarineTraffic, against a pre-conflict daily average of 125 transits 34.

Analysis
The evacuation scheme clears the humanitarian backlog while the commercial chokepoint remains intact. Mine contamination has closed the central TSS lanes, routing traffic through two narrow corridors at roughly one-fifth pre-conflict volume. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have declined to transit pending safety verification, and US-Iran nuclear friction adds political risk to any accelerated reopening. Full restoration within 30 days is unlikely. High confidence rests on confirmed TSS mine fields, carrier-stated operational holds, and traffic data showing no trajectory toward pre-war volumes. Tehran's conversion from active interdiction to named IMO cooperating party marks the sharpest posture shift since the ceasefire. CENTCOM's confirmed clearance of the southern corridor could accelerate TSS lane certification in days, compressing the reopening window. If that slips, tanker operators and Asian refiners extend alternative supply contracts through mid-August as oil markets absorb continued supply uncertainty above current price levels.

6 sources

IMO announces evacuation plan in the Strait of Hormuz - International Maritime Organization
Ships start sailing through Hormuz under UN evacuation scheme, agency says - BNN Bloomberg
Plan To Evacuate Hundreds Of Ships Still Stranded From Strait Of Hormuz Closure Is Coalescing - The War Zone
Strait of Hormuz evacuation plan to begin for ships stranded in Persian Gulf, maritime organization says - CNBC
UN starts evacuating 11,000 stranded sailors from Strait of Hormuz - Al Jazeera
Stranded Hormuz seafarers begin mass evacuation operation - United Nations