US Treasury Issues 60-Day Oil Sanctions Waiver for Iran as Part of Memorandum of Understanding

Analysis
General License X converts the MoU from a diplomatic signal into a structured incentive, delivering Iran oil revenue under a 60-day clock while both governments negotiate. A formal nuclear framework superseding the MoU before August 21 is unlikely. High confidence rests on three observable constraints: verification sequencing has historically taken months, congressional opposition has materialized, and Tehran has issued no formal response to the license. OFAC anchors the license terms directly; converging press coverage adds weight but no independent corroboration. Washington may instead have already secured its core objectives, Hormuz transit and IAEA access, and be planning to extend the license at the August 21 cliff rather than press for a superseding agreement. Whether that extension materializes or sanctions snap back determines simultaneous Hormuz transit and market exposure.