France Braces for General Strike After Weeks of Protests and Riots

Analysis
We have high confidence that the movement is weakening, because the official count has fallen from 550,000 to 410,000 to 320,000 over three weeks while the 70,000-officer deployment and Paris route limits repeat earlier weeks. The Interior Ministry's count of Thursday's marchers will likely come in below the 320,000 reported on October 31, when the ministry publishes it by November 6. Sourcing is thinner than four outlets suggest, since the secondary reports draw on shared ministry, union and prefecture statements rather than independent counts. The Saturday protests held above the 100,000 mark forecast on October 18, but unions have now added a weekday strike, which changes who is marching. Private and public workers have more organizational reach than Saturday crowds, so a large worker turnout could raise the count above 320,000 and show a movement consolidating rather than fading. The education ministry's figure of 17 percent of teachers filing notice offers an early read on reach, and Gilets Jaunes blockades on Friday and Saturday will show whether the movement outlasts the union day. A count below 320,000 lets the government hold its budget line and policing posture while pressure shifts to unions to escalate. A higher count would push Matignon toward wage concessions such as a Smic increase before the 2027 budget debate advances.