Americas — 2026-09-14

US Offered Cuba Oil and Investment for Diaz-Canel Departure and Cupet Privatization

BLUFCollapse of the back-channel oil deal leaves Washington without leverage to force political change in Havana, making Díaz-Canel's departure by March 2027 very unlikely.

Miami Herald reported, citing an anonymous source with direct knowledge, that the Trump administration offered Cuba oil and US investment in its energy sector in exchange for President Miguel Díaz-Canel's exit and privatization of state oil monopoly Cupet, which runs Cuba's fuel distribution through CIMEX under the military-run GAESA conglomerate 1234. US emissaries met Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson and longtime bodyguard of Raúl Castro, nicknamed "Raulito" and acting as an intermediary with senior Trump administration officials, in Saint Kitts and Nevis in February 1234. Havana rejected sole dependence on a US company for oil, and a proposed joint venture with international investors also stalled, with Rodríguez Castro reportedly saying Cuba would accept economic reforms but would not let Washington dictate its governance 12. Cuban American lawmakers Carlos Giménez, Mario Díaz-Balart and María Elvira Salazar publicly opposed a deal that could preserve Cuba's government, with Salazar saying Cubans "deserve freedom, not another deal to keep the same regime in power" 34. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez said Monday that no negotiations were underway, though he said contact between the two governments continues 3.

Analysis
Díaz-Canel is very unlikely to leave Cuba's presidency by March 14, 2027, and the deal's collapse leaves Havana's energy crisis unresolved and Washington's pressure campaign without a near-term political win. Havana's leadership chose to resist rather than accept a Castro-family back channel as a path to political change, rejecting sole dependence on a single US oil supplier and shelving a joint-venture alternative with international investors. Continued Cuban dependence on rationed private-sector fuel imports and threatened US tariffs on third-country shippers will keep pressure elevated without producing the political concessions Washington sought. We have moderate confidence in this judgment; it rests on one anonymously sourced account of internal deliberations that neither government has confirmed.

5 sources