AfD Wins Absolute Majority in Saxony-Anhalt Becoming First Far-Right Party to Govern a German State Since World War II

Analysis
Germany's other parties now face a choice between sustaining an increasingly strained multi-party firewall or watching Siegmund exploit BSW's ambivalence and possible lawmaker defections to assemble a majority. Siegmund reaching the premiership by year-end 2026 is very unlikely: BSW has rejected both his and Schulze's candidacy and proposed a nonpartisan premier that itself requires AfD backing Siegmund has already refused, though his refusal could also function as a bargaining tactic to extract concessions rather than a firm block. This judgment rests on consistent, independently corroborated reporting on party positions and seat arithmetic and is held with high confidence, even as the underlying vote and seat totals are anchored by official results while party-strategy details rest on secondary sourcing alone. Sunday's certified 43.8% AfD result, more than double 2021 and giving AfD and BSW a combined one-seat majority, moves the arithmetic from anticipated plurality to confirmed dominance, though a three-defection majority remains unconfirmed by any named lawmaker. Prolonged coalition paralysis is the likelier near-term outcome, and Western officials' timeline for curbing intelligence sharing remains tied to whether Siegmund actually secures the premiership rather than merely leads the largest bloc.