Adversary Intelligence — 2026-09-26

Italy Cybersecurity Agency Warns of SVR-Linked AI-Powered Election Interference Campaign Targeting Italian Vote

BLUFRussia's AI-enabled influence operations against Italian leaders are already underway, yet formal public attribution to the SVR before Italy's next national vote remains very unlikely.

Italy's National Cybersecurity Agency (ACN) on July 13 relayed a joint US-NSA-FBI warning on activity tied to the FSB's Center 16, citing threats to communications, defense-industrial, energy, financial-services, government and healthcare sectors, and named Russian cyber-espionage groups including Berserk Bear, Energetic Bear, Dragonfly and Static Tundra 1. Decode39 reported ACN registered 2,171 cyberattacks in the first half of 2026, while Italy's Cyber Crime Observatory put dark-web-exposed data at 2.5 billion records 2. Both outlets reported AI-manipulated videos have circulated depicting Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, including footage with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a clip showing her praising a Russian commander 12. Il Giornale additionally reported a fabricated video targeting PD secretary Elly Schlein surfaced in August 1. Il Giornale, citing an unnamed source, reported that Palazzo Chigi convened Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, security undersecretary Alfredo Mantovano and armed forces and intelligence chiefs for a briefing on global crisis areas 1.

Analysis
Public attribution from Italian authorities tying the AI-generated deepfakes of Meloni and Schlein to the SVR is very unlikely before Italy's next national vote, since forensic and signals evidence sufficient to name a specific service rarely surfaces pre-election. Rome's exposure instead runs through information volume: multiple fabricated videos are already circulating, and ACN logged 2,171 intrusions this year, showing the technical intrusion layer is already active. Confidence is moderate: both outlets report the same deepfake pattern and the same July ACN-NSA-FBI advisory, but neither offers primary evidence linking the videos to Center 16 or SVR operators, leaving convergence structural rather than evidentiary. The footage may equally reflect opportunistic pro-Russian accounts rather than a directed influence operation. Confirmed attribution would let Palazzo Chigi invoke rapid-response protocols and platform takedowns during the pre-vote silence period. Absent it, government messaging stays limited to general warnings, constraining any diplomatic or sanctions response.

2 sources

I russi nelle urne: i piani dell'Italia nella cyberguerra - Il Giornale
Italy braces for Russia next front: AI-powered election interference - Decode39