Indo-Pacific — 2026-07-26

China Conducts Two-Day Live-Fire Drills Near Taiwan Strait Following US-China Talks

BLUFConfining drills to Fujian's coastal waters rather than encircling Taiwan signals Beijing chose a proportional, reversible response to the Rubio-Wang Yi exchange over coercive escalation.

China began two days of live-fire drills on Thursday in waters off Fujian province around Dongshan Island, running 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time through Friday, according to a notice from Chinese maritime authorities cited by Reuters 12. The exercises started a day after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila and discussed Taiwan among other issues; Reuters noted the timing does not by itself establish a link between the talks and the drills 12. Taiwan's foreign ministry condemned the drills, urging Beijing to exercise "rational self-restraint" and halt what it called military provocations and gray-zone intrusions, while Rubio told reporters in Manila that the US disagreed with China's use of its coast guard around Taiwan but that continued dialogue between Washington and Beijing remained important 12. TaiwanPlus reported the exercises follow increased Chinese incursions near Taiwan's waters and airspace and coincide with South China Sea tensions raised by delegations at the Manila ASEAN summit 3. The drills' location near the Chinese coast and their reported scale differ from December's war games, when China's Eastern Theatre Command fired rockets into waters north and south of Taiwan over ten hours after a US arms package announcement 12.

Analysis
The drills' confinement to a single zone off Fujian, rather than the multi-day encirclement spanning waters north and south of Taiwan seen in December, marks calibrated pressure timed to the Rubio-Wang Yi exchange rather than a shift toward direct coercion against the island. Beijing stages the exercises on its own coastal approaches, not around Taiwan itself, preserving an off-ramp and avoiding an elevated alert posture in Taipei. Moderate confidence in this reading reflects Reuters as the sole primary source and limited direct access to PLA planning intent. The overlap with Manila ASEAN summit friction over the South China Sea places the drills within a broader pattern of multi-front signaling rather than escalation against any single dispute. Absent a new precipitating event such as an arms sale or high-level transit, Beijing's response calculus favors proportional, reversible signals over further escalation.

3 sources

China begins two-day live-fire drills near Taiwan Strait after U.S.-China talks - Khaama Press
China begins two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait - Free Malaysia Today (Reuters)
Chinese Live-Fire Exercises in Taiwan Strait – July 23, 2026 - TaiwanPlus