Middle East — 2026-06-07

Trump Tells Axios He Will Call Netanyahu to Urge No Retaliation for Iranian Missile Attack

BLUFTrump's demand for restraint is unlikely to prevent an Israeli counterstrike within 30 days given active IDF targeting preparations and Netanyahu's domestic pressure to respond forcefully.

Iran fired multiple waves of missiles at Israel on Sunday, its first direct attack since the April 8 ceasefire, in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs; Israel reported intercepting them 12. Trump told Axios he was calling Netanyahu "right now" to demand no counterstrike, stating "Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one," and a second official confirmed to Axios the call took place 123. Trump's explicit rationale was deal-protection: "We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don't want it to blow up because of what is happening now" 1. A senior US official told Axios "we are not part of this," leaving unresolved whether Trump would direct the military to withhold air-refueling and other operational support for any Israeli strike on Iran 1. IDF Chief of Staff was "approving military plans" at that time, IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin stated, declaring Iran "made a grave mistake" 12.

Analysis
Israeli restraint from a retaliatory strike on Iran within 30 days is unlikely: IDF leadership was approving targeting options as Trump placed the call, and Israeli officials had already signaled a "forceful response." Trump's intervention introduces ambiguity around U.S. air-refueling and operational support, raising costs without eliminating Netanyahu's domestic pressure to respond. Trump's stated motive is a nuclear deal he describes as "very close," a constraint that dissolves if Iran exits negotiations. Moderate analytic confidence rests on confirmed IDF planning posture and consistent public statements, though the single Axios report anchoring the sourcing limits independent corroboration of the call's content. Netanyahu may instead use Trump's intervention as domestic political cover to stand down without publicly capitulating. If Israel strikes, U.S. force commanders face an unresolved question of whether operational support continues, determining American force participation in a new escalatory cycle.

4 sources