Middle East — 2026-07-23

Yemen Houthis Declare Naval Blockade of Saudi Arabia Opening New Front as Oil Surges Past 100 Dollars

BLUFHouthi strikes on named Saudi tankers very likely presage a sustained second-chokepoint campaign within 30 days, compounding Gulf shipping risk beyond what any single ceasefire track can resolve.

Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, in the Red Sea late Wednesday, with Saudi state agency SPA confirming a fire on the Encelia's bow and Reuters unable to immediately confirm the Layla strike 1. The attack followed the Houthis' announcement earlier in the week of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, the first such strike since that declaration 2. President Trump said the US will hold Iran responsible for further Houthi attacks, calling the group an Iranian "Surrogate and/or Proxy," while Centcom reported a twelfth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets including maritime, missile, and drone storage assets 12. Iran's military said it struck US missile systems and fuel storage in Jordan and US military posts in Kuwait, and Jordan's army said it intercepted three of four Iranian missiles and six drones over the prior 24 hours 1. Brent crude rose more than 6% to above $100 a barrel, its first time above that level since May, and the Institute for the Study of War reported at least seven vessels had diverted from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait 2.

Analysis
A confirmed strike on named Saudi tankers days after the blockade declaration shows the Houthis executing rather than posturing, and further hits on Saudi-linked or Red Sea shipping within 30 days are very likely, extending Hormuz-style interdiction into a second chokepoint Riyadh had used to route around it. Confidence is low given single-primary-source reporting, with Reuters unable to independently confirm one of the two claimed hits, and the Houthi claims may be outrunning verified damage. Trump's threat to hold Iran directly responsible raises the odds that US strikes shift from Iranian military infrastructure toward Houthi-enablement targets if another tanker is hit, and read against direct US-Iran exchanges over Kuwait and Jordan, pressure on Gulf shipping now exceeds what any single ceasefire could relieve. A confirmed pattern of repeat strikes would push Saudi Arabia and shippers toward the longer Suez/Cape route at higher freight cost, while a lull would let tankers resume Bab el-Mandeb transits and ease the oil price premium.

4 sources