Armed Conflict — 2026-07-24

ISW: Kostyantynivka Control Remains Contested as Russian Forces Go All-In at Lyman Despite Heavy Casualties

BLUFRussian forces remain very unlikely to capture full control of Lyman by August 21, but Zelensky's mid-battle command reshuffle adds coordination risk as Ukrainian rotation capacity faces sustained pressure.

Ukraine's General Staff reported repelling 16 Russian attacks near Kostiantynivka on July 21, including around the settlements of Illinivka, Rusyn Yar and Sofiivka, with one engagement still ongoing as of 4pm 1. Toward Lyman, Ukrainian forces repelled seven and then 15 additional assault attempts across Novoselivka, Shyikivka, Lyman, Stavky and Ozerne, with four attacks continuing at the time of reporting 1. Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated Russian forces have intensified pressure in northern Donetsk Oblast and toward Lyman 1. ISW assessed that Russian forces made no confirmed territorial gains around Kostiantynivka or Lyman as of July 21, and separately reported that Zelensky dismissed Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi and named Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as his replacement late that day 2.

Analysis
Zelensky's dismissal of Syrskyi for Drapatyi during an active, high-tempo defense of Lyman signals a wartime command reshuffle rather than a response to territorial loss, since ISW confirms no Russian gains at Kostiantynivka or Lyman despite dozens of daily assaults. Russian forces are very unlikely to capture full control of Lyman by August 21, given repeated failed assault waves against a static line. Moderate confidence rests on convergent ISW and General Staff reporting of zero confirmed gains despite sustained heavy Russian commitment; the command transition introduces a coordination variable the reference class cannot fully account for. Continued Russian reserve commitment toward Kupiansk and Lyman signals an operational main effort shift that will strain Ukrainian rotation capacity if sustained through August.

2 sources

War in Ukraine today: latest news, 21 July 2026 - Ukrainian Women's Guard (UAVARTA)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment July 21 2026 - Institute for the Study of War