Military — 2026-09-29

Russia Plans 27 Percent Military Spending Increase in 2027 to Highest Level Since Full-Scale Invasion

BLUFMoscow will likely sustain record defense spending through 2027, absorbing fiscal strain through new taxes and borrowing rather than scaling back its war effort.

Reuters, citing Russian government budget documents it reviewed, reported on September 28 that Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles ($202.58 billion) on defense in 2027, about 27% above the 13.5 trillion originally budgeted 12Meduza" data-url="https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/09/28/reuters-russia-plans-record-defense-spending-of-17-trillion-rubles-in-2027-27-more-than-previously-budgeted" data-rt="secondary" data-mbfc="high" data-otype="digital_news">3. The documents put total defense spending at 50 trillion rubles over three years and list 12.1 trillion for 2026, though the actual 2026 figure is classified 24. The same documents raised the 2026 deficit estimate to 3.2% of GDP from 1.6% and cut the 2026 oil and gas revenue estimate to 7.6 trillion rubles from 8.9 trillion 2. Meduza noted that the 2026 budget had set defense spending at 12.93 trillion rubles, a different figure from the one in the documents 3. The government is due to submit the draft budget to parliament by October 1 24.

Analysis
Russia will likely submit a draft 2027-2029 budget to the State Duma by October 5 listing 2027 defense spending of at least 16 trillion rubles, leaving about 1.1 trillion of margin below the reported 17.1 trillion. The documents lift that figure from the earlier 13.5 trillion baseline and widen the 2026 deficit estimate to 3.2 percent of GDP from 1.6 percent. A wider deficit, weaker oil and gas revenue and debt above the 20 percent safety line will force new taxes and heavier borrowing before Moscow trims military outlays. Confidence is moderate: Reuters is the sole primary source, the other outlets repeat it, the documents are unseen, and the 2026 actual is classified. The headline may partly reflect reclassification or front-loaded authority, since Meduza's 12.93 trillion for 2026 differs from the documents' 12.1 trillion. If the draft clears 16 trillion, sanctions planners and Kyiv's defense staff should plan for sustained force generation through 2027 and target the revenue gap. A lower figure would signal fiscal limits.

6 sources

Exclusive-Russia Raises 2027 Military Spending by 27%, Budget Documents Show - Reuters (via U.S. News)
Russia Raises 2027 Military Spending by 27%, Budget Documents Show - The Moscow Times
Reuters: Russia plans record defense spending of 17 trillion rubles in 2027, 27% more than previously budgeted - Meduza
Russia to raise military spending by 27% in 2027, highest level in war so far, media reports - Kyiv Independent
Exclusive-Russia Raises 2027 Military Spending by 27%, Budget Documents Show - Reuters (via U.S. News)
Exclusive-Russia Raises 2027 Military Spending by 27%, Budget Documents Show - Reuters (via U.S. News)