US blockade holds at Hormuz chokepoint as tanker convoy transits under Iranian approval

Analysis
The simultaneous US port blockade and Iranian approval regime for Strait transit, the latter sourced exclusively through Tehran state outlets pending independent AIS corroboration, produce a dual-chokepoint architecture in which both sides collect operational data on every hull moving through the Gulf, converting closed confrontation into a running negotiation surface. Yesterday's Strait reopening proved partial. Transit is now open-but-permissioned, and Tehran is very likely using that paradox over the next two weeks to extract procedural recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the passage, a concession Washington can make operationally without conceding the legal point. A major kinetic incident remains unlikely within the next 10 days while talks continue. The NYT mosquito-fleet profile is a deliberate signal that asymmetric options stay live if the deadline framing hardens, not evidence that escalation is imminent. Shipping insurance premia and flag-of-convenience shifts are the leading observables. A surge in STS transfers outside the Strait would signal commercial actors pricing in a higher failure probability than governments publicly acknowledge.