Space & Technology — 2026-09-18

Space-Based ISR Satellite Launches Expected to Grow Fourfold in Next Decade as Defense Budgets Reach $121 Billion

BLUFProliferated ISR constellations are redistributing space-based intelligence from a US-dominated franchise to a sovereign capability that dozens of mid-tier states will field independently by the mid-2030s.

Novaspace CEO Pacôme Révillon told the Space Defense and Security Summit in Paris on Tuesday that defense-owned ISR satellite launches will total 2,306 in 2026-2035, up from 485 in the prior decade 123. Novaspace projects government space defense budgets will rise to $121 billion in 2028 from $74 billion last year and $53 billion in 2022, with at least 55 countries now maintaining space defense budgets 123. Most of the new ISR satellites will belong to constellations rather than operate as standalone platforms, and Révillon attributed the buildup to lessons from the Ukraine war and a March 2025 US pause in data sharing 123. Novaspace separately forecasts operational satellites in orbit could reach 50,000 to 100,000 by 2036, up from 18,000 in 2026, with more than 400 space situational awareness satellites launched in 2025-2034 at a projected cost of $61 billion, $52 billion of it defense-funded 123.

Analysis
The projected quadrupling of defense ISR launches marks a durable shift from superpower-exclusive reconnaissance toward proliferated, constellation-based sovereignty, with mid-tier allies like Poland and the Netherlands already funding national constellations that will increasingly displace reliance on US-brokered imagery sharing, eroding Washington's leverage after the March 2025 data pause exposed that dependency. Parallel growth in space situational awareness spending signals tracking and congestion management will increasingly shape procurement alongside raw collection capacity. Defense News supplies the sole original account of Révillon's remarks; other outlets republish or expand the same Novaspace figures absent independent government confirmation. Novaspace's own commercial stake in forecasting growth for a market it advises and sells data on means these figures describe an industry projection rather than confirmed budget commitments.

4 sources

Space-based ISR launches to grow fourfold in next decade, Novaspace says - Defense News
Space-based ISR launches to grow fourfold in next decade, Novaspace says - Military Times
Space-based ISR launches to grow fourfold in next decade, Novaspace says - Air Force Times
One-Week Blackout Sparked Global Arms Race: 55 Nations Now Building Military Spy Satellites - Tech Times