IC Workforce & Organization — 2026-10-05

DIA Releases Updated Will to Fight Guidance to Help Intelligence Community Analysts Assess Combatant Commitment Across Conflict Spectrum

BLUFDIA's revised framework standardizes how analysts judge combatant resolve, but its value remains untestable until the agency discloses whether it would have corrected past Afghanistan and Ukraine assessment failures.

The Defense Intelligence Agency released "Analyzing Will to Fight" on September 30, an unclassified framework to help intelligence community analysts assess combatant will to fight from peacetime to armed conflict 12. The 2026 edition is the second iteration, and DIA states it covers intangibles such as leadership, military culture and innovation and stresses Intelligence Community Directive 203 standards 1. Breaking Defense, which received the document ahead of publication, reported that a DIA spokesperson tied the timing to the fifth anniversary of the Afghanistan withdrawal and declined to say which militaries have been assessed or what conclusions were reached 3. The framework states that will to fight can change quickly and that a shift does not by itself mean a prior baseline was wrong 3.

Analysis
The framework standardizes how analysts judge combatant will to fight, but it is guidance, not intelligence on any specific force, and it discloses neither which militaries were assessed nor what was concluded. Its warning that will to fight can shift quickly without invalidating a prior baseline raises the bar for analysts to show what caused a shift. Outside observers cannot yet test whether the method would have corrected the Afghanistan and Ukraine misjudgments DIA cites. All sourcing traces to DIA's own release and an advance copy, so nothing independent corroborates claims beyond the agency's account. The release may instead be mainly public messaging timed to the withdrawal anniversary, signaling institutional learning without changing how DIA assesses particular militaries.

3 sources

DIA Releases Will To Fight Analytic Framework - Defense Intelligence Agency
DIA Releases Will To Fight Guidance - Small Wars Journal
EXCLUSIVE: How the DIA measures a military's 'Will to Fight' - Breaking Defense