Military — 2026-06-23

RAND Study Finds US Cannot Repair Battle-Damaged Ships in War with China

BLUFForce regeneration, not lethality, is the binding constraint on US naval staying power in a prolonged Indo-Pacific conflict, and no current program closes the gap before it would matter.

A RAND Corporation report based on a tabletop exercise conducted in August 2025 modeling US defense of Taiwan against Chinese invasion or blockade found that US Navy battle-damage repair systems are "burdened by inefficiencies" that would prevent rapid return of damaged Arleigh Burke-class destroyers to combat 123. The Navy has not faced damage at comparable scale since World War II; players identified shortfalls in theater spare-parts stockpiles, ambiguous command-and-control authority, and US knowledge gaps about allied port locations and capabilities 23. RAND co-author Bradley Martin told Defense News that China "has significantly better industrial repair capability" and operates closer to the fight; Japan, South Korea, and Australia indicated their support for US repairs "cannot be assumed once the threat level starts to escalate" 3. The report recommended streamlining repair command authority, pre-negotiating allied port access, and expanding deployable expeditionary repair capabilities 1.

Analysis
Force regeneration, not firepower, is the binding constraint in a sustained Indo-Pacific conflict, per RAND's single published study (RRA470-9); secondary coverage adds nothing original. Peacetime C2 structures are embedded in wartime planning at precisely the moment they become least suited to demand, while China's proximity and industrial depth eliminate that constraint on its side. Allied support is politically contingent: Japan, South Korea, and Australia each face domestic political exposure hosting US repairs under Chinese escalation pressure. The study modeled one ship class under peacetime baselines, and US industrial surge capacity in a declared war could close gaps the framework does not capture. Pre-negotiated port access, forward parts stockpiles, and command authority reform must precede the first exchange.

4 sources

Battle Damage Repair for Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyers: Tabletop Exercise Results - RAND Corporation
US could not repair battle-damaged ships in war with China study finds - Military Times
US couldn't repair battle-damaged ships in war with China, study finds - Defense News
The Pacific Pivot's Achilles' Heel: US Won't Be Able to Repair Battle-Damaged Warships In Conflict with China, Study Finds - Sunday Guardian Live