Iran Conflict — 2026-03-26

Iran War Disrupts Fertilizer Supply as US Farmers Face Planting Season Shortfall

Hormuz closure has bottled up nearly 50% of global urea exports, triggering a 25-30% fertilizer price spike just as US corn planting begins. The Fertilizer Institute projects a 2 million ton urea shortfall this spring. NPR and CNN report farmers may shift acreage from corn to soybeans, which require less nitrogen fertilizer. Indiana pumpkin and Texas watermelon plantings are at risk. CNBC notes the shortage threatens Republican midterm prospects in farm states where input costs are now the top voter concern.

Analysis
The fertilizer shortage creates a second-order political vulnerability that connects this story to the EPA ethanol waiver in the DHS category. The shift from corn to soybeans would reduce US ethanol feedstock, partially undermining the E15 waiver policy.
3 sources
  1. War with Iran disrupts fertilizer exports as US farmers prepare for planting season - NPR
  2. Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings - CNBC
  3. Iran War Energy, Fertilizer Shocks Threaten Food Prices - Foreign Policy

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