Global Economy — 2026-04-28
UAE Announces Exit from OPEC and OPEC+ Effective May 1
The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, citing national energy strategy priorities and an evolving energy profile. Oil prices rose more than 3 percent on the day before trimming gains. The UAE stated it will bring additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner aligned with demand and market conditions.
Analysis
Sourced to a single Seoul Economic Daily report with an internal date contradiction (May 1 versus December 1), whether the withdrawal proceeds within the next 30 days remains uncertain. A confirmed withdrawal would remove roughly 3.2 million barrels per day from quota discipline, the largest single-member departure since OPEC's founding, stripping the cartel of its most credible Gulfswing producer outside Saudi Arabia. The reserve-depletion rationale is inconsistent with Abu Dhabi's documented reserve position, and accumulated friction over production ceilings since 2021, or a coercive signal toward Riyadh consistent with the UAE's 2021 playbook, likely explains the move. OPEC's supply-management credibility would likely erode within the first two quarters if remaining members must compensate for Emirati volume outside quota.
Sourced to a single Seoul Economic Daily report with an internal date contradiction (May 1 versus December 1), whether the withdrawal proceeds within the next 30 days remains uncertain. A confirmed withdrawal would remove roughly 3.2 million barrels per day from quota discipline, the largest single-member departure since OPEC's founding, stripping the cartel of its most credible Gulf
2 sources
- UAE to Exit OPEC on Dec 1 Cites Depleting Oil Reserves -
Seoul Economic Daily - The UAE is leaving OPEC on Friday -
NPR