US-Iran War — 2026-03-27
RUSI Warns US-Israeli Interceptor Stocks Face Critical Depletion; Arrow-3 at 81% Expended, THAAD Nearing Exhaustion
RUSI published an assessment warning that coalition forces expended 11,294 munitions costing $26 billion in the first 16 days of war, with interceptor depletion now the binding constraint on operations. Israel has expended 81% of Arrow-2/Arrow-3 interceptors and 54% of
Analysis
At 81% Arrow-2/3 expenditure, Israel is days from losing its primary exo-atmospheric defense layer. The 96-per-year THAAD production rate means even emergency procurement cannot close the gap in less than 18 months. This creates a window of vulnerability that Iran may exploit by intensifying ballistic missile launches, precisely the strategy the increasing wave tempo suggests.
At 81% Arrow-2/3 expenditure, Israel is days from losing its primary exo-atmospheric defense layer. The 96-per-year THAAD production rate means even emergency procurement cannot close the gap in less than 18 months. This creates a window of vulnerability that Iran may exploit by intensifying ballistic missile launches, precisely the strategy the increasing wave tempo suggests.