Energy & Infrastructure — 2026-08-25

Ukrainian Drones Knock Out Lukoil Perm Refinery for Second Time in 2026 Shutting 40 Percent of Capacity

BLUFRepeated Ukrainian strikes on the same refinery now idle three-quarters of its capacity, and full restoration by September 20 remains unlikely given the plant's vulnerability to follow-on attack.

Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery on August 21, causing a fire and damage that shut its CDU-4 crude distillation unit, roughly 40 percent of plant capacity and able to process 14,000 metric tons of crude oil per day, two industry sources told Reuters 12. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Ukrainian forces hit the refinery, Russia's seventh-largest by processing volume 23. A second unit, CDU-5, accounting for 34 percent of capacity, has been offline since a July 29 drone attack, leaving roughly three-quarters of the plant's crude processing capacity idle 23. Sources estimated repairs to CDU-4 could take one to two weeks 12; Lukoil did not respond to a request for comment 2.

Analysis
With CDU-4 joining CDU-5 (offline since July 29), roughly three-quarters of Permnefteorgsintez's crude processing capacity now sits idle at Russia's seventh-largest refinery by throughput. Restoration within 30 days is unlikely: industry estimates of one to two weeks for CDU-4 alone assume no further strikes on a plant Ukraine has hit repeatedly since spring and shut entirely in May. Moderate confidence reflects a single Reuters primary account, with other outlets merely relaying that wire report, and independently verified damage assessments remain absent. Lukoil may partially offset the outage by running smaller CDU-1 and CDU-2 units harder, understating the true capacity loss. If CDU-4 returns online in that window, fuel-shortage pressure eases and Kyiv's case for re-striking Perm narrows; if not, regional gasoline rationing persists and repeat strikes on this refinery take priority over dispersing effort elsewhere.

4 sources