Middle East — 2026-10-05

Yemeni and Saudi Forces Launch Major Counteroffensive Against Houthis to Retake Territory

BLUFDespite Saudi air support and U.S. intelligence backing, government forces are very unlikely to capture Hodeidah by November 5 given Houthi coastal depth and unverified battlefield claims.

Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al-Alimi announced in a televised speech on Sunday that government forces would begin operations to retake the remaining Houthi-held territory 12. Axios reported that tens of thousands of Yemeni ground troops are participating, with Saudi forces providing air cover and strikes, and that the U.S. is giving intelligence and targeting support but no direct combat for now, per U.S. officials 3. Government spokesman Colonel Majed Abdullah al-Nazili said 257 targeting operations on Saturday killed at least 700 Houthis, a figure Al Jazeera relayed as an initial estimate 1. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais, and Saudi Arabia had not commented 12. The Houthis also claimed to have taken the Taiz-Aden highway 2.

Analysis
Government-aligned forces are very unlikely to capture Hodeidah by November 5. Houthi forces hold Mocha and a coastal belt that Yemeni ground units must clear first, and Saudi air power can degrade positions but cannot hold ground while Washington withholds strikes. Houthi missile and drone fire on Aramco sites will likely continue through the window. Confidence is moderate, because battlefield control rests on belligerent claims no outlet has verified. The offensive began Sunday, ahead of the October 31 deadline, and the Houthis answered by claiming the Taiz-Aden highway. The operation may instead aim only at Mocha and the strait coast, with Sanaa and Hodeidah as rhetoric, and Riyadh may accept partial gains to restart talks. If Hodeidah falls, insurers reprice Red Sea transit and Washington faces pressure to escalate. If it holds, Riyadh must deepen its air campaign or accept stalemate with Gulf energy infrastructure exposed.

4 sources