Middle East — 2026-10-07

Saudi-Led Coalition Commits 100 Fighter Jets to Dawn of Yemen Operation as Government Forces Seize Bab el-Mandeb Positions

BLUFSaudi-backed forces are very unlikely to secure Mocha or Bab al-Mandeb by October 31, as Houthi pressure on Taiz and the Aden supply line will force the coalition into a defensive diversion it cannot afford.

Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi announced the start of military operations on Sunday to retake Houthi-held territory, Khaleej Times and Reuters (via ARY News) reported 12. Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani said government forces seized positions around Dhubab and its airstrip with heavy Saudi air support, and the Houthis called claims of lost ground "completely untrue" 3. Saudi Arabia said it struck hundreds of targets 3. Reuters cited military sources saying the Houthis gained hilltops near Taiz in the prior 48 hours, advancing on the last road to Aden 2. Ynetnews, citing six sources, reported Riyadh considered mobilizing more than 100,000 Yemeni troops Bab el-Mandeb from Houthis" data-source="Ynetnews" data-url="https://ynetnews.com/article/bjxod8tcfe" data-rt="secondary" data-mbfc="high" data-otype="newspaper">4.

Analysis
Government control of the Bab el-Mandeb coast remains contested, and Dhubab is the test of whether Riyadh can reopen the strait to shipping. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces are very unlikely to take full control of Mocha or Bab al-Mandeb, confirmed by independent reporting, by October 31, 2026. Confidence is moderate because the reporting rests on government and Saudi claims the Houthis reject, and no independent source verifies ground control. Five outlets converge, but only Al Jazeera is a primary report, so agreement reflects one announcement rather than confirmation. The Houthis hold the initiative near Taiz and threaten the last road to Aden, forcing the coalition to divert forces. The Dhubab claim may reflect a limited coastal seizure timed to the announcement. If the government fails, Riyadh faces pressure to widen the campaign or seek talks, and energy importers must plan for continued disruption at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

5 sources

Yemen govt leader announces military operations against Houthis to seize territory - Khaleej Times
Yemen announces major military operation to retake Houthi-held territory - ARY News
Yemen counter-offensive adds fresh risk to oil markets as Iran keeps Hormuz closed - National Security News
Saudi Arabia plans 100,000-troop Yemen offensive to retake Bab el-Mandeb from Houthis - Ynetnews
Yemen gov't forces launch air strikes on Houthi targets - Al Jazeera