Energy — 2026-10-02

Russian Diesel Exports via Black Sea Fall to Zero for First Time on Record as War Risk Insurance Soars

BLUFSoaring war-risk premiums and Moscow's extended export ban will likely hold Black Sea diesel loadings well below historical averages through late October, forcing buyers to seek alternative supply routes.

Russian diesel and gasoil exports through the Black Sea fell to zero in the week ending September 24, the first such week on record, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data reviewed by The Insider 12. Novorossiysk had loaded 66,000 metric tons the prior week, against a 2025 weekly average near 200,000 tons 1. Total Russian seaborne diesel exports nearly halved to 81,000 tons, all loaded at Primorsk for Morocco and Venezuela 1. On September 16, the Joint War Committee expanded its high-war-risk zone to cover most of the Black Sea, and Platts estimated the war-risk premium for loading oil at Black Sea ports at $2.90 a barrel by September 21, up from 90 cents at the end of 2025 1. The Insider also reported that Russia extended its producer diesel export ban through October, with intergovernmental shipments exempt 1.

Analysis
Russian Black Sea diesel loadings are likely to stay below 100,000 metric tons in every week ending between October 1 and October 29, well under Novorossiysk's 2025 average. Wider war-risk coverage, a premium that tripled in nine months, and the producer export ban through October all push the same way. Moscow can shift product to Baltic ports, so total seaborne diesel exports may recover while Black Sea volumes do not. Confidence is moderate because everything traces to one S&P Global dataset; the outlets repeating it add no independent corroboration. The zero week may be a scheduling gap or tracking artifact, and cargoes rebooked under exempt intergovernmental agreements could lift Novorossiysk above that line. If the forecast holds, Mediterranean and European buyers will need to plan for Baltic-sourced supply and higher freight and insurance costs. If it fails, Black Sea underwriting and loading positions need reassessment.

3 sources

Russian diesel exports via the Black Sea fall to zero for the first time on record - The Insider
Russia's Black Sea diesel exports fall to zero for first time on record - Hellenic Shipping News
Russian diesel exports via the Black Sea fall to zero for the first time on record - The Insider